Timeline
- March 16 (Wed): Homura's time loop starts. She is released from the hospital.
- March 18 (Fri, estimate): Homura stops Madoka from contracting by killing Kyuubey.
- March 25 (Fri): Homura transfers into school. Madoka and Sayaka are introduced to magic and meet Mami. Homura kills Kyuubey, and chases his second body until he meets Madoka. This was the originally scheduled airing date for the final episode.
- April 3 (estimate): Waxing crescent moon. Mami dies.
- April 4 (estimate): Definitely the next day. Sayaka contracts.
- April 16 (confirmed): Full moon. Kyouko confronts the girls. Talks with Homura and discusses that Walpurgis Night is in two weeks.
- April 17-27 (or 28th): Waning crescent moon. Sayaka's downfall.
- April 22 (Fri): The delayed airing date of episodes 11 and 12.
- April 27 (or 28th): Homura kills Kyuubey in the park and Sayaka becomes a witch.
- April 28 (or 29th): Kyouko kamikaze attacks Sayaka, killing them both.
- April 30 : Walpurgis Night.
I missed a few events in between, but those are the major date markers. Now, there are a few things that aren't clear at this point. Starting from the end, Walpurgis Night occurs the night of April 30. Judging from the moon, that means that the point we left off at the end of episode 9 is either the 28th or 29th. This will be confirmed in the episodes tomorrow.
More importantly, however, is the number of times Homura has killed Kyubey this timeline. In timeline 4, we see her kill him before talking to Madoka from outside her window. This is the only time we see it in TL4. In TL5, we do not see this kill, but we do see a definite kill at the mall before a second Kyubey runs past, and finally into Madoka. Kyubey can only be killed once before he's killed in the park on April 27th, when he realizes Homura's time stop powers and says that "This is the second time you've killed me." Everyone knows there are slight differences between episode 1 and TL5 in episode 10. So, what actually happened? Does anyone care to discuss this before /a/ explodes from the ending tomorrow?
Oh, one more thing. The calendar we see in Homura's room coincides with our actual calendar, year 2011. That means that today is most likely equivalent to a few days after Hitomi takes Kamijou, and Sayaka is in the middle of her downfall. Unfortunately, the actual moon phases don't line up, but that's ok.
Homura's calendar at the hospital.
