Talk:Saimoe 2011

Well this is an unexpected page to see on this wiki. If you enjoy this tournament and wanted to post about it that's cool but if you're doing it because you think Madoka will win this, I think you'll be disappointed. Odds are none of the Madoka characters will win this because luck and politics aside, I don't think they're seen as the most moe by Japan. I can't say I personally mind it since I enjoy following this for amusement, although it's not something I really relate to Madoka since I started following it back when Nanoha was a big contender. --randomanon 13:31, 22 July 2011 (UTC)

Even if they don't win, it's likely that they'll enjoy a good run, although, since it's single elimination, it will be highly dependent on the luck of the draw (note: I didn't even knew about this tourney until I saw this, and I am amazed by the depth, including the witches and ep12 Puellae). We have two preliminary round winners and Walpurgis just barely missed the cut (although how anyone would consider that thing moe is beyond me), so the remaining main characters are almost guaranteed in the main lot, with Junko and, to a lesser degree, Hitomi having a decent shot.
Props to KM for the page. --BrickBreak 14:37, 22 July 2011 (UTC)

Apparantly this is a big deal in otakusphere every year. Are characters only allowed in a single preliminary? If so, can we also get a list of already eliminated puella-magis somewhere? Also, where's viking-kun? She's moe as fuck. - Prima 16:24, 22 July 2011 (UTC)

It's all covered in the links. Just don't get it confused with International Saimoe which is different. Saimoe has been around a long time. It's big and while moe is serious it's also done tongue-in-cheek, which is why you get so many votes for things like background characters. It's tradition for people to gang up and vote out top contenders like Homura Akemi before they get that far, so don't get your hopes up. --randomanon 16:57, 22 July 2011 (UTC)

They're allowed into one match in the first set of preliminaries, and some of the ones that don't qualify there get into a second set of preliminaries. Eliminated list added. However, there seems to be an error:

Patricia @ Puella Magi Madoka Magica: <<委員長の魔女＠魔法少女まどか☆マギカ>> round 3

Patricia @ Puella Magi Madoka Magica: <<パトリシア（委員長の魔女）＠魔法少女まどか☆マギカ>> round 12

I'm working from translations so can somebody who understands everything on the official Japanese site confirm that this is what it looks like, and Patricia is in two groups? Also, a Madoka character is going to win this year. All the talk of sniping only strengthens defenses against it, and the competition is limited, with the toughest rivals being a coupe of harems and all of the veteran factions out or fading. Charlotte isn't flat enough, so if we can get rid of Kuroneko and Menma, it's over. KM 17:58, 22 July 2011 (UTC)

You ever seen the winners list for Saimoe? [1]. Look at the girls who win. The only Madoka character that comes close to fitting the profile is Madoka Kanami. The problem is she doesn't get enough focus in the anime to be really beloved or perceived as exceptionally moe. Also, notice what popular characters you don't see. Do you really think Asuza was the most popular girl from K-ON? No, Mio is, but she never makes it that far because she gets sniped down. That may happen to Homura. Also, Bake sold like crazy and before Madoka, Haruhi was the most discussed anime on 2ch. But you don't see them doing well. In the end, I don't think Madoka is going to win because the characters are simply not perceived as the most moe by the definition used in the tournament. This is not a character popularity contest. Adding: Also, notice that some of the winners are from anime that weren't airing that year. Serious contenders are from prior year anime as well. --randomanon 18:02, 22 July 2011 (UTC)

Prior years have to have some sort of new appearance to get into the tournament, so aside from K-ON, so there's just Misaka, who was only 3rd in her prelim. Azusa is better liked than Mio after the second season, and it wasn't sniping when the Azusa-Mio-Misaka match had Mio get ignored. Which characters do you expect to win? KM 18:43, 22 July 2011 (UTC)

Not really, Mio's been the most popular in online and magazine (NewType) character polls, as well as character product sales. And she definitely does get sniped, it's been openly talked about on 2ch. Not that I ever thought she'd win anyways, Mio doesn't fit the winner profile. Also, let me clarify about prior season anime: K-ON first season aired in 2009, enters tourney in 2009, wins in 2010. Lucky Star aired in 2007 and enters tourney in 2007, wins in 2008. See what I'm saying there about current year/season not being the only serious competition? The way this contest is set up, expecting anyone to win is a big mistake or even how far they'll make it. Two leading popular characters could end up pairing up early and the more popular character could lose due to a vote faction block. This is why I said in my first post that if you're posting this page expecting Madoka to win, you'll probably be disappointed. If you did this page simply because you like Saimoe a lot, that's different, although again I don't see as Madoka related and I'm not sure how you'll feel if this page turns out showing they lose. Do you want to still keep it on the wiki, even if that happens? --randomanon 19:13, 22 July 2011 (UTC)

I leave speculah up when it turns out to be wrong, although it will be a moot point in this case. Contestants gaining strength in their second year makes more sense, but an actual character has to pull it off. Misaka's a 3rd year, and Angel Beats is looking weak and only had one cour. KM 20:14, 22 July 2011 (UTC)

Mm, OK. I respect your confidence even if I don't share it. Also, you're overlooking some strong contenders, just so you know. --randomanon 21:05, 22 July 2011 (UTC)

I'll tell you one thing, though: whatever factors affect it, a single elimination tourney is still a single elimination tourney, which means anything can happen. It will greatly depend on the luck of the draw, given that the draw will affect both the chances of one char going through AND the chances of it getting sniped. --BrickBreak 01:52, 23 July 2011 (UTC)

Correct, that's one of my points. That's why "expect to win" is not a good bet to make. --randomanon 01:58, 23 July 2011 (UTC)

That's no fun, though. When you know it's a trap, it's time to make a forceful penetration. KM 03:59, 23 July 2011 (UTC)

Ha. Well, gotta thank you for introducing this to me, because it is sure as hell going to be fun to follow. Took some time to check, and so far, every favorite of mine's through (hey, forgive me, I'm not a one-anime man.... and to be honest, if we ever get a Madoka vs Panty&Stocking showdown, I really dunno), except Black Rock Shooter (and Roberta from Black Lagoon, but she's the opposite of moe without the glasses). But this goes back to what I said earlier... even if it's only Japan, popularity is still the biggest factor. Just looking at Kyouko's bracket, look at who she beat: Mio from Nichijou in tenth, and she's moe as fuck (hell, every character is); Ryuuko from Denpa in fifth... and I don't think I even have to say anything here; and what's even more surprising, Kyouko beat ARIA, which is absolutely stunning if you ask me, as we're talking about a popular main character. That really bodes for Madoka's characters' success. Won't say more than that because, well, preliminaries bla bla bla. --BrickBreak 21:24, 23 July 2011 (UTC)

And Mami beats Erio and Mayuri. That's just overkill. (on the other hand, Scanty didn't even made the top 40. What the hell, Japan). --BrickBreak 18:24, 24 July 2011 (UTC)

It is, and it says to everyone "Please everyone, come target us!" It might be like Saki all over again. --randomanon 18:38, 24 July 2011 (UTC)

Yeah, well, we'll have at least four buffers, plus Charlotte and whatever we can get of what's left and the second preliminaries to act as distractions. I honestly wasn't expecting Sayaka to win, though (one vote difference O.o), because you wouldn't believe the amount of idiots who say "she deserved to die, the naive bitch". Of course that us foreigners, but even in Japan she seems to be unfavored (I remember a pilgrimage to the Madoka cafe where there her t-shirts were the only ones that weren't sold out). --BrickBreak 16:05, 27 July 2011 (UTC)

They're not all buffers because many voters don't go by anime when placing a vote on a girl. Some of the less popular girls won't win against a top-tier candidate from another anime. If snipers knock out Madoka and Homura, it'll become very difficult after that. Many voters don't like curves like Mami for their winning candidate and neither Kyouko nor Sayaka are that popular. Charlotte and the others won't get that far. --randomanon 23:20, 27 July 2011 (UTC)

And now for something completely different: personally, I have absolutely no understanding of Japanese. And I figure I'm not the only one int he same situation. So how about including a mini-guide on this page to help people voting (and finding other useful information on the site)? --BrickBreak 20:51, 22 July 2011 (UTC)

Check the English site link. It will tell you everything. Although it seems that for prelims at least, they're blocking overseas IPs or it's incredibly difficult to get a generated code. --randomanon 21:05, 22 July 2011 (UTC)

Yeah, animesaimoe.org covers it well. Since none of the IP ranges I've tested are working yet, I won't bother with "saimoe voting for dummies" instructions until the main tournament starts, but when it does there will be pictures and everything here. KM 21:17, 22 July 2011 (UTC)

And this is where my inexperience bites me again... but why the hell would they go that far? Are foreigners not worthy of reviewing "their" characters, or what? --BrickBreak 01:49, 23 July 2011 (UTC)

Saimoe errs on the side of being overly conservative and censoring at the drop of a hat if they sense any kind of vote manipulation, like proxy voting. However in this case, it probably has to do with the belief that overseas fans do not understand the definition of moe used in the tournament and are only voting based on anime or character popularity. I must say there's some truth to that. So they want to reduce influence there at least for prelimins. The belief is that overseas fans will be allowed to vote during the actual tournament rounds, which is what matters anyways. For Madoka fans, there's honestly no need to bother with the preliminaries. Main characters will have no problems making the top 12 to move on to the regular tournament rounds. --randomanon 01:58, 23 July 2011 (UTC)

Heh, that's a reason I can understand. But then again, the definition of moe isn't properly set in stone, and I'm simply not seeing the same issues (if you wanna call it that) with popularity not happening there as well. Just look at Walpurgis, it barely missed the cut, and it's going into another round of preliminaries. How on earth someone would
Changing subjects (again): think Hitomi, Kazuko and Junko (and maybe Walpurgis) will make it to the main lot? --BrickBreak 02:35, 23 July 2011 (UTC)

Saimoe is really Japan's competition and Japan's definition of moe. There's the International Saimoe which is open to all, but with proxy voting issues, not taken as seriously. Nonetheless, it's their contest to run it the way they like. As for Walpurgis, it made the second round prelims. But that's the tongue-in-cheek part I talked about...any case, none of the minor ones will last long. That's just done for amusement. They will all be eliminated when Japan starts getting serious. --randomanon 02:39, 23 July 2011 (UTC)

laughing sayaka.gif

You almost had me for a second. - Prima 23:45, 8 August 2011 (UTC)

And considering Hitomi failed the cut by one place... oh my god, so appropriate. So very appropriate. Wasn't expecting both Junko and Hitomi out, given their high standings in the first prelims. But oh well, at least we got Ume-sensei! --BrickBreak 23:53, 8 August 2011 (UTC)

Haha. Also, about the tactical voting comment, since they both did worse than before, I wonder if some people are trying to minimize the backlash by not backing the minor Madoka characters in this round. The match was close enough that only a few would have to do it, and we don't want to get a reputation like Saki. KM 00:25, 9 August 2011 (UTC)

Heh, as far as tactical votes go, we got a good distraction for now, in the form of Index's 17 chars (!) with two more on group 6. That's just insane.
Also, a random question for those watching Steins;Gate: should Ruka even be in this tourney? Because, you know... it's a guy. --BrickBreak 01:01, 9 August 2011 (UTC)

Well technically Ruka was Rukako for awhile... So i'm not sure how that works. Snsninja 04:17, 9 August 2011 (UTC)

Main Tournament Matches

Homura vs Misaka Mikoto on 8/15-8/16. This is going to be a huge battle, and it's on the first day. Everybody is going to try to gang up against Homura and tactical vote her out, so use everything you've got to stop them and treat this as seriously as the championship match. KM 23:28, 9 August 2011 (UTC)

Well, I'm still a newbie to Saimoe, but wouldn't the fact that Misaka is a heavyweight work in Homura's favor? As in, counter-sniping? Then again, Sara could work as a "fuck you both" option... --BrickBreak 00:14, 10 August 2011 (UTC)

Misaka was third in the preliminary match, in the same group as Homura, so her perceived threat level is nothing compared to Homura's. Sara is too weak to matter so the only people who will vote for her are the ones who actually like her. KM 00:30, 10 August 2011 (UTC)

Lesser threat, but threat nonetheless. They gotta start shooting down the whooping 18 characters Index has at some point. Fans who don't support Madoka or Index can resort to Sara.
Looking at the rest of the tourney, barring any possible snipes, everyone else has a good shot (though Kyouko's will be close). On that note, there are some pretty funny matches. Not only other championship level (Mio vs Ika) but particularly seeing Erio matched against HER MOTHER made me roll on the floor. --BrickBreak 00:54, 10 August 2011 (UTC)

Sara has zero chance no matter what, like a third party in a US presidential election, so if they voted for her instead of Misaka, Homura would win for sure. And they can just get rid of Misaka later using Victorique, Kurisu, or Astarotte, which would be much easier than stopping Homura. Some of these matches are pretty funny. I like how Charlotte is against a magical girl from PreCure.KM 01:21, 10 August 2011 (UTC)

Well, we're three days away. Any news on the foreign votes? --BrickBreak 19:07, 13 August 2011 (UTC)

So... I've left the code generator open for hours, and still no code, only the "please wait message". I am on a pretty crappy connection right now, so it's likely have lost connection a few times: would that have any effect? --BrickBreak 22:01, 15 August 2011 (UTC)

No, it shouldn't make a difference. It's more likely you're being blocked by Saimoe. There's been discussion about blocking foreign IPs on 2ch but nothing conclusive as to whether that's being implemented. I also see some voters abroad who get codes and other who say they can't, so it may be a region by region based IP block if in fact that's what is happening. --randomanon 22:15, 15 August 2011 (UTC)

So far I've only heard of two people outside Japan getting codes, despite tons trying. The code generator hates foreigners. As for connection loss, it won't cause the please wait message, and it would only be a problem if your IP address changes. KM 22:33, 15 August 2011 (UTC)

Well then, I guess saying "crap" would be in order. And now that Homerun-chan had just given us the perfect ASCII art for the vote :( --BrickBreak 22:37, 15 August 2011 (UTC)

Well I've been silently following Saimoe, and Homura has lost her match against Mikoto. I'm actually not that really surprised, I almost expected this to happen.--Riga92 19:01, 16 August 2011 (UTC)

"It's tradition for people to gang up and vote out top contenders like Homura Akemi before they get that far, so don't get your hopes up. --randomanon 16:57, 22 July 2011 (UTC)" Follow Saimoe long enough, and you get use to this happening. I was hoping for more of a Nanoha outcome than a K-ON 2009/Saki one, but that's Saimoe for you. --randomanon 20:09, 16 August 2011 (UTC)

Just to be sure, this match is going to be a complete fuck up, isn't it? --BrickBreak 20:27, 14 September 2011 (UTC)

Everyone survived thus far, quite a impressive showing by the magical girls in round three. - Prima 04:02, 2 October 2011 (UTC)

Group finals

So, our girls are putting a hell of a show, so far. How do our "saimoe experts" view this? /interviewvoice --BrickBreak 18:05, 16 October 2011 (UTC)

The group finals all look pretty straightforward. Probably won't have any surprises until the draw for the final 8. KM 20:03, 17 October 2011 (UTC)

Not to say I'm an expert but things have radically changed. There's been a recent discovery of cheating with banning of entire spans of IP to prevent multi-voting. Outraged fans turned against Biribiri as a main recipient of multi-votes, leading to her (unexpected, prior to this discovery) sound defeat this round. Assuming Madoka characters were not also a recipient of multi-vote IPs (which I think isn't the case, their popularity made sense, Index's unusual strength never really did), the path is much clearer to their victory. There is also much sympathy for Madoka, due to Homura being the victim of the cheating. I'd say if we see Madoka showing the expected strength in these group finals, one of them will win it all. --randomanon 16:35, 18 October 2011 (UTC)

Follow-up. Per symbv's translation of the cheater's confession: "I read the whole confession by the Chinese guy in baidu. It was a difficult read (despite this being my first language) because there are so many jargons and argot words in it. What I could tell is this guy is a keen Railgun supporter and had participated in "secret fights" in last year's saimoe (though the result did not seem to be too satisfactory). He is studying in America and he actually spent hard cash in generating those extra IP addresses (and it seems some bug was exploited), amd he calculated that it cost him 40-50 dollars per extra vote (not sure if this is Renmanbi or US dollar)! Perhaps some extra hardware is required... Apparently he was not under pressure to confess but just had to voice it out (perhaps to get it off his chest) on Oct 19 after Biribiri was defeated by "Kugikyu" AstraLotte the previous day." --randomanon 07:31, 25 October 2011 (UTC)

Basically, if you're overseas, you can blame this guy for why you can't vote. --randomanon 07:33, 25 October 2011 (UTC)

Interesting. Confirms the story I heard and adds some more detail. 40-50 renminbi would be 6-8 dollars, which is plausible. KM 00:33, 26 October 2011 (UTC)

In that case, it's not hard to imagine that he must have spent over over 1000$ on round 1 alone... Jes- I mean, Madoka, that's either one of two things: either overkilling overkill, r showing just how little I know about people's anime fandom obsession. --BrickBreak 00:54, 26 October 2011 (UTC)

Haha, saimoe really told me for calling it straightforward. There's no telling how some other characters like Tenshi will fare after the new bans, but since the cheater went directly against Homura and she still made it into the high 500's, there's no reason to expect the bans to hurt Madoka characters much. Interesting how Homura's sacrifice ended up protecting Madoka. It's like we're following the show's script. KM 21:42, 18 October 2011 (UTC)

Meguca sweep! - Prima 15:45, 24 October 2011 (UTC)

Finals

Well, here we are, and if getting a character here would already have been a success, getting four, half of the contestants (with, arguable, Homura having 90% of qualifying as well, hadn't it been for some sad events), if simply amazing. It's unfortunate that there wasn't an even split, but that would be having way too much luck.
...and I must admit: I was, from the bottom of my dark heart, waiting for some catastrophe t happen in order for Sayaka to come out on top. Instead, she gets paired with Madoka. Being a Sayaka fan is suffering. --BrickBreak 00:58, 26 October 2011 (UTC)

If it's any consolation, placing this timeline's regularly scheduled Sayaka death in the quarterfinals against Madoka is the best possible strategic move towards getting one of the Madoka characters to win the championship. Having all four in separate matches would create too much anti-Madoka "the draw is rigged" outrage, and any snipers or cheaters hiding out there will have to act in the quarterfinals, so protecting Madoka makes our strongest candidate immune until after they reveal their hands. KM 06:20, 26 October 2011 (UTC)

Actually, it could still go any number of ways if there's sniping, although we have no idea how many they are or how organized now with this IP bans. In the past they were certainly formidable but who knows for now. Assuming there's still a significant force, it could play out like this for example: They could leverage Kuroneko's popularity to defeat Kyoko, guaranteeing one non-PM girl in the final. Then on the other side, if PMMM fans split their votes, all snipers have to do is pile on Sayaka's side to get rid of Madoka. Depending on how powerful they are, they could possibly get rid of Mami as well, either using Squid girl or Sayaka. Then attempt to beat Sayaka with Kuroneko in the final. That's why Saimoe can be unpredictable. --randomanon 14:52, 26 October 2011 (UTC)

And of course, I would laugh my ass off if they managed to do that, but failed on the last step. ----BrickBreak 01:40, 27 October 2011 (UTC)

I see three likely possibilities: If the anti-Madoka faction is unusually strong, Kuroneko will win it. If they're not as strong as PMMM but catch them off-guard at first, Mami will win it. If PMMM fans are smart from the start and/or very strong, Madoka will win it. --randomanon 06:27, 28 October 2011 (UTC)

If I could vote, I would vote for Sayaka. But to prevent the worst and invincible witch from hatching, it seems someone have to be sacrificed... For me, the ideal final is "and I'm home".Yorkwoo 17:44, 29 October 2011 (UTC)

Hmm. I was looking at the vote tallies so far... and Sayaka is the most voted character so far, with over 500 votes over Madoka. Of course, so far there hasn't been any case of vote splitting, and Sayaka had to endure through arguably tougher opponents (how metatastic). But when she had weaker opponents, she still trashed them, as opposed to other characters who got 250/300-150/100 tallies in such matches. Most likely this won't have any influence, but it left me wondering. --BrickBreak 22:01, 29 October 2011 (UTC)

Sorry but Madoka is beating Sayaka for a pretty smooth run so far. No real attempts at fake voting etc. so it appears to be a straight-forward intraseries contest. Even though Sayaka's vote totals are higher, Madoka's vote percentages were much higher (63% vs. 55.6% avg), her matches are pretty much left alone from fake voting and other tactics to drive up votes. She's really been left alone to a smooth sailing to victories, like no one wants to even try and challenge her wins. --randomanon 22:27, 29 October 2011 (UTC)

Oh! Sayaka is finally eliminated from this competition. Maybe next one is Kyoko. "Being alone is lonely, isn't it?" Yorkwoo 15:22, 30 October 2011 (UTC)

"Finally"? :(
Well, that was closer than expected. The vote graphic isn't up yet, but was there a late sniping attempt, or something? --BrickBreak 15:35, 30 October 2011 (UTC)