Timeline
All Timelines
- Backstories of Kyouko and Mami. It is implied in the series that they knew each other, and that Mami somehow knows Kyouko's backstory (Kyouko's is likely to be the magical girl who made a wish for others and whose story did not have a happy ending that Mami and Kyuubey talked about in episode 3). Oriko Magica will probably occur before the time loops begin.
Timeline 1
- March 16 (Wed, offscreen): Homura is released from the hospital.
- March 18 (Fri, estimate): Madoka contracts with Kyuubey
- March 25 (Fri): Homura transfers into school and meets Madoka. She is attacked by Izabel and is saved by Madoka and Mami. She learns about magic.
- April 30 (Sat): Walpurgis Night. The witch is seen in this timeline. Mami is killed, while Madoka sacrifices herself to destroy the witch. Homura contracts, her wish being to redo her first meeting with Madoka. Time resets.
Inferences: Sayaka never contracted. Kyouko never came to Mitakihara.
Timeline 2
- March 16 (Wed): Homura's time loop starts. She is released from the hospital.
- March 18 (Fri, estimate): Madoka contracts with Kyuubey.
- March 25 (Fri): Homura transfers into school and tells Madoka she's a magical girl.
- In between March 25 and April 30, but closer to March: Homura shows her powers to Mami and Madoka. Later she makes pipe bombs, and uses them to defeat Patricia. We can infer that Madoka, Mami, and Homura fought as a magical girl trio.
- April 30 (Sat): Walpurgis Night. Madoka destroys the witch, but becomes a witch herself. Time resets.
Inferences: Sayaka never contracted. Kyouko never came to Mitakihara. Mami probably died fighting Walpurgis Night, though as we never see it happen, it's possible she survived (or died earlier).
Timeline 3
- March 16 (Wed): Homura is released from the hospital.
- March 18 (Fri, estimate): Madoka contracts with Kyuubey.
- March 25 (Fri): Homura transfers into school. We can infer that she told Madoka and Mami she was a magical girl.
- In between March 25 and April 30, in estimated chronological order:
- Sayaka contracts and becomes a magical girl
- It can be inferred that Madoka, Mami, Sayaka, and Homura fought together at least once, and that Sayaka was concerned about getting caught in an explosion.
- It can be inferred Kyouko is somehow contacted, likely by Homura and/or Mami, to help with Walpurgis Night.
- Homura tells Sayaka, Mami, and Madoka about the true nature of witches. Sayaka doesn't believe her, and also distrusts the idea of Kyouko coming to Mitakihara. She tells Homura to find a new weapon.
- Homura steals firearms from the Yakuza.
- Kyouko comes to Mitakihara town. It can be inferred that she began to care for Sayaka in some fashion (based off her last words in this timeline)
- Sayaka becomes a witch. Madoka, Mami, Kyouko, and Homura fight her, and she is destroyed by Homura. After the battle, Mami snaps and kills Kyouko, and then is killed by Madoka to stop her from killing Homura. It is possible that Madoka picked up Sayaka's Grief Seed after the battle. This event probably happened shortly before April 30th.
- April 30 (Sat): Walpurgis Night. Madoka and Homura defeat the witch, but are in danger of becoming witches themselves. Madoka uses one last Grief Seed (possibly Sayaka's) to purify Homura's Soul Gem. She then asks Homura to kill her in the current timeline, and stop her from contracting in the next timeline. Homura does what she says. Time resets.
Timeline 4
- March 16 (Wed): Homura is released from the hospital.
- March 18 (Fri, estimate): Homura prevents Madoka from contracting with Kyubey.
- Between March 18 and April 30:
- Homura kills Kyuubey at least once, and warns Madoka against contracting. The exact time is a bit unclear. It is possible that Homura killed Kyuubey on March 18th. On the other hand, because Madoka seems to recognize Homura when she appears outside her window, it's possible Homura killed Kyuubey on or after March 25th, after transferring into school. It's also possible Homura never went to school in this timeline, focusing entirely on killing witches, and Madoka only recognized Homura from dreaming about a previous timeline.
- Homura steals weapons from the military and fights as many witches as possible.
- April 30 (Sat): Walpurgis Night. The witch appears different from the one seen in the first timeline. Homura fails to defeat the witch. Madoka contracts with Kyubey and kills the witch with one shot. She then becomes an even more powerful witch that can destroy humanity in ten days. Time resets.
Inferences: Mami, Kyouko and Sayaka were unseen in this timeline, which opens several possibilities. But it's likely that Sayaka didn't contract, Kyouko never came to Mitakihara, and Mami died before or on Walpurgis Night.
Timeline 5
- March 16 (Wed): Homura's time loop starts again. She is released from the hospital.
- March 18 (Fri, estimate): Homura prevents Madoka from contracting with Kyubey. Note that Homura does NOT kill Kyuubey at this point, suggesting she found some other way to keep him away from Madoka.
- March 25 (Fri): Madoka dreams about Walpurgis Night from the previous timeline. However, the witch again appears different. Homura transfers into school. Madoka and Sayaka are introduced to magic and meet Mami. Homura kills Kyuubey (for the first time in this timeline), and chases his second body until he meets Madoka. This was the originally scheduled airing date for the final episode.
- April 3 (Sun, estimate): Waxing crescent moon. Mami dies.
- April 4 (Mon, estimate): Definitely the next day. Sayaka contracts.
- April 16 (Sat, confirmed): Full moon. Kyouko confronts the girls. Talks with Homura and discusses that Walpurgis Night is in two weeks.
- April 17-27 (or 28th): Waning crescent moon. Sayaka's downfall.
- April 22 (Fri): The delayed airing date of episodes 11 and 12.
- April 27 (Wed, or 28th Thu): Homura kills Kyuubey in the park (for the second time in this timeline) and Sayaka becomes a witch.
- April 28 (Thu, or 29th Fri): Kyouko kamikaze attacks Sayaka, killing them both.
- April 30 (Sat): New moon. Walpurgis Night.
I missed a few events in between, but those are the major date markers. Now, there are a few things that aren't clear at this point. Starting from the end, Walpurgis Night occurs the night of April 30. Judging from the moon, that means that the point we left off at the end of episode 9 is either the 28th or 29th. This will be confirmed in the episodes tomorrow.
More importantly, however, is the number of times Homura has killed Kyubey this timeline. In timeline 4, we see her kill him before talking to Madoka from outside her window. This is the only time we see it in TL4. In TL5, we do not see this kill, but we do see a definite kill at the mall before a second Kyubey runs past, and finally into Madoka. Kyubey can only be killed once before he's killed in the park on April 27th, when he realizes Homura's time stop powers and says that "This is the second time you've killed me." Everyone knows there are slight differences between episode 1 and TL5 in episode 10. So, what actually happened? Does anyone care to discuss this before /a/ explodes from the ending tomorrow?
- Homura found some other way to distract Kyuubey in timeline 5 without killing him.
Oh, one more thing. The calendar we see in Homura's room coincides with our actual calendar, year 2011. That means that today is most likely equivalent to a few days after Hitomi takes Kamijou, and Sayaka is in the middle of her downfall. Unfortunately, the actual moon phases don't line up, but that's ok.
Homura's calendar at the hospital.
The moon on the night when Sayaka fought Elly in Episode 4.
The moon at the start of Episode 7 when Kyuubey tortures Sayaka.
The moon later in Episode 7, on the next night when Sayaka fights Elsa Maria.
The moon when Homura confronts and threatens to kill Sayaka in Episode 8.
The moon during the Episode 8 park scene where Kyuubey eats his own corpse.
The moon during the Episode 8 park scene when Homura reveals the name Incubator.
The moon at the end of Episode 8 after Sayaka becomes a witch.
Another shot of the moon at the end of Episode 8.
