Timeline
All Timelines
- Backstories of Kyouko and Mami. It is implied in the series that they knew each other, and that Mami somehow knows Kyouko's backstory (Kyouko's is likely to be the magical girl who made a wish for others and whose story did not have a happy ending that Mami and Kyubey talked about in episode 3). Oriko Magica will probably occur before the time loops begin.
Timeline 1
- March 16 (Wed, offscreen): Homura is released from the hospital.
- March 18 (Fri, estimate): Madoka contracts with Kyubey
- March 25 (Fri): Homura transfers into school and meets Madoka. She is attacked by Izabel and is saved by Madoka and Mami. She learns about magic.
- April 30 (Sat): Walpurgis Night. The witch is seen in this timeline. Mami is killed, while Madoka sacrifices herself to destroy the witch. Homura contracts, her wish being to redo her first meeting with Madoka. Time resets.
Inferences: Sayaka never contracted. Kyouko never came to Mitakihara.
Timeline 2
- March 16 (Wed): Homura's time loop starts. She is released from the hospital.
- March 18 (Fri, estimate): Madoka contracts with Kyubey.
- March 25 (Fri): Homura transfers into school and tells Madoka she's a magical girl.
- In between March 25 and April 30, but closer to March: Homura shows her powers to Mami and Madoka. Later she makes pipe bombs, and uses them to defeat Patricia. We can infer that Madoka, Mami, and Homura fought as a magical girl trio.
- April 30 (Sat): Walpurgis Night. Madoka destroys the witch, but becomes a witch herself. Time resets.
Inferences: Sayaka never contracted. Kyouko never came to Mitakihara. Mami probably died fighting Walpurgis Night, though as we never see it happen, it's possible she survived (or died earlier).
Timeline 3
- March 16 (Wed): Homura is released from the hospital.
- March 18 (Fri, estimate): Madoka contracts with Kyubey.
- March 25 (Fri): Homura transfers into school. We can infer that she told Madoka and Mami she was a magical girl.
- In between March 25 and April 30, in estimated chronological order:
- Sayaka contracts and becomes a magical girl
- It can be inferred that Madoka, Mami, Sayaka, and Homura fought together at least once, and that Sayaka was concerned about getting caught in an explosion.
- It can be inferred Kyouko is somehow contacted, likely by Homura and/or Mami, to help with Walpurgis Night.
- Homura tells Sayaka, Mami, and Madoka about the true nature of witches. Sayaka doesn't believe her, and also distrusts the idea of Kyouko coming to Mitakihara. She tells Homura to find a new weapon.
- Homura steals firearms from the Yakuza.
- Kyouko comes to Mitakihara town. It can be inferred that she began to care for Sayaka in some fashion (based off her last words in this timeline)
- Sayaka becomes a witch. Madoka, Mami, Kyouko, and Homura fight her, and she is destroyed by Homura. After the battle, Mami snaps and kills Kyouko, and then is killed by Madoka to stop her from killing Homura. It is possible that Madoka picked up Sayaka's Grief Seed after the battle. This event probably happened shortly before April 30th.
- April 30 (Sat): Walpurgis Night. Madoka and Homura defeat the witch, but are in danger of becoming witches themselves. Madoka uses one last Grief Seed (possibly Sayaka's) to purify Homura's Soul Gem. She then asks Homura to kill her in the current timeline, and stop her from contracting in the next timeline. Homura does what she says. Time resets.
Timeline 4
- March 16 (Wed): Homura is released from the hospital.
- March 18 (Fri, estimate): Homura prevents Madoka from contracting with Kyubey.
- Between March 18 and April 30:
- Homura kills Kyubey at least once, and warns Madoka against contracting. The exact time is a bit unclear. It is possible that Homura killed Kyubey on March 18th. On the other hand, because Madoka seems to recognize Homura when she appears outside her window, it's possible Homura killed Kyubey on or after March 25th, after transferring into school. It's also possible Homura never went to school in this timeline, focusing entirely on killing witches, and Madoka only recognized Homura from dreaming about a previous timeline.
- Homura steals weapons from the military and fights as many witches as possible.
- April 30 (Sat): Walpurgis Night. The witch appears different from the one seen in the first timeline. Homura fails to defeat the witch. Madoka contracts with Kyubey and kills the witch with one shot. She then becomes an even more powerful witch that can destroy humanity in ten days. Time resets.
Inferences: Mami, Kyouko and Sayaka were unseen in this timeline, which opens several possibilities. But it's likely that Sayaka didn't contract, Kyouko never came to Mitakihara, and Mami died before or on Walpurgis Night.
Timeline 5
- March 16 (Wed): Homura's time loop starts again. She is released from the hospital.
- March 18 (Fri, estimate): Homura prevents Madoka from contracting with Kyubey. Note that Homura does NOT kill Kyubey at this point, suggesting she found some other way to keep him away from Madoka.
- March 25 (Fri): Madoka dreams about Walpurgis Night from the previous timeline. However, the witch again appears different. Homura transfers into school. Madoka and Sayaka are introduced to magic and meet Mami. Homura kills Kyubey (for the first time in this timeline), and chases his second body until he meets Madoka. This was the originally scheduled airing date for the final episode.
- March ?? (School day): Madoka tells her mother about visiting Mami's apartment the previous evening. Madoka brings Kyubey to school and encounters Homura on the rooftop. Mami, Madoka, and Sayaka hunt down and defeat Gertrud. Japanese students attend school on Saturday, so it's possible for this to be March 26.
- April 3 (Sun, estimate): Mami dies.
- April 4 (Mon, estimate): Waxing crescent moon. Definitely the next day. Madoka talks to Sayaka and Kyubey on the school roof. Madoka speaks with Homura after visiting Mami's apartment and mentions that Mami's death was yesterday. Sayaka contracts and defeats Elly.
- April 16 (Sat, confirmed): Kyouko confronts the girls. She talks with Homura and discusses that Walpurgis Night is in two weeks.
- April 17 (Sun): In a scene that takes place after Kyouko and Homura's chat, Sayaka visits the alley in which she fought Kyouko to search for the familiar and refers to the battle as happening last night.
- April 18 (Mon, estimate): Sayaka visits the hospital to discover that Kyousuke was released the day before. Most likely on the same day, Sayaka approaches Kyousuke's house, encounters Kyouko, and confronts her on the bridge where Madoka throws her soul gem.
- April 18 (Mon, estimate): Full moon. Kyubey tortures Sayaka through her soul gem. Based on Sayaka's comments, this most likely happened immediately after the bridge confrontation.
- April 19 (Tue, estimate): Sayaka and Kyouko meet in the church. Sayaka skips school on this day.
- April 20 (Wed, estimate): Full moon. Kyousuke returns to school and Hitomi mentions Sayaka's absence the day before. Hitomi delivers her ultimatum to Sayaka. At night, Sayaka goes on patrol and battles Elsa Maria.
- April 21 (Thu, estimate): Hitomi and Kyousuke become a couple. Sayaka hasn't returned home, and Madoka is searching for her. Based on the change from a full moon to a crescent moon, there must be a time skip between their romance scene and the confrontation between Sayaka and Homura.
- April 27 (Wed, or 28th Thu): Waning crescent moon. Homura kills Kyubey in the park (the second kill in this timeline) and Sayaka becomes a witch.
- April 28 (Thu, or 29th Fri): Waning crescent moon. Kyouko kamikaze attacks Sayaka, killing them both.
- April 30 (Sat): New moon. Walpurgis Night.
Walpurgis Night occurs the night of April 30. Judging from the moon, that means that the point we left off at the end of episode 9 is either the 28th or 29th. This will be confirmed in episodes 11 and 12.
The calendar we see in Homura's hospital room coincides with our actual calendar, year 2011. March has 31 days with the 25th falling on a Friday, and is the only such month in 2011. This means that the events in the anime take place while the show is airing in the real world. Episode 12 was originally set to air on the night before the events of Episode 1, and Homura's time loop restart point is during the week after the airing of Episode 10. Since Episodes 11 and 12 were delayed, their final airing dates occur during middle of Sayaka's downfall.
In the anime, Hitomi gives one day's notice in Episode 7 and makes her move in Episode 8. Madoka is desperately searching for Sayaka and learns from Sayaka's parents that she hasn't come home since the previous night. These scenes occur only one day after the events of Episode 7. However, the moon is a thin waning crescent in Episode 8 and is full in Episode 7. Either a time skip occurred between those scenes and the confrontation between Sayaka and Homura, or the moon is being drawn inconsistently.
All shots of the moon collected so far feature either a full moon or a narrow crescent, so it is likely that SHAFT is adjusting moon phases for dramatic effect.
Homura's calendar at the hospital.
The moon on the night when Sayaka fought Elly in Episode 4.
The moon at the start of Episode 7 when Kyubey tortures Sayaka.
The moon later in Episode 7, when Sayaka fights Elsa Maria.
The moon when Homura confronts and threatens to kill Sayaka in Episode 8.
The moon during the Episode 8 park scene where Kyubey eats his own corpse.
The moon during the Episode 8 park scene when Homura reveals the name Incubator.
The moon at the end of Episode 8 after Sayaka becomes a witch.
Another shot of the moon at the end of Episode 8.
The moon in the beginning of Episode 9 when Homura and Kyouko escape from Oktavia's barrier.
The moon at the end of Episode 9, on the next night when Oktavia is defeated.
